据普氏能源资讯9月18日新加坡报道,周三上午交易时段,基准的迪拜原油期货价差涨跌互现,在该国新任能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹?本?萨勒曼王子(Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman)举行新闻发布会后,中东地区的风险溢价在价格中反映出来。
迪拜10月/ 11月原油期货价差周二晚4:30(格林威治标准时间08:30)至周三上午11:30(格林威治时间03:00)保持不变,报1.59美元/桶。在沙特王子发表最新恢复生产最新消息后,原油期货价格持平,出现了3- 5美元/桶的回调——沙特阿拉伯已经恢复了一半以上的石油生产能力, 预计到9月底将恢复到1100万桶/日的生产能力,两个月后将恢复1200万桶/日的全部生产能力。
沙特能源部长的讲话扭转了隔夜原油期货价格的走势,纽约商交所近月原油期货结算价下跌3.56美元,至59.34美元/桶,洲际交易所布伦特原油期货结算价下跌4.47美元,至64.55美元/桶。
但亚洲原油交易员对标普全球表示,未来几周轻质原油市场可能仍将吃紧。
周三上午,迪拜对洲际交易所布伦特原油期货的折价收窄,这意味着,尽管沙特阿拉伯发表上述言论后,全球油价的下意识反应有所缓和,但苏伊士以东的交易员仍在对从中东向亚洲的原油流动风险进行定价,这反映在迪拜原油价格上。
一位交易员在谈到亚洲局势时表示,市场波动很大,很难进行交易。
周三,新加坡11月布伦特/迪拜期货掉期交易所(Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps)的价差收窄至3.90美元/桶,此前该价差在周二晚间4:30被评估为4.16美元/桶。与此同时,反映未来几个月原油市场供应紧张状况的因素大幅缓解,11月/ 12月迪拜原油期货价差周三上午从周二晚间的1.54美元降至1.13美元/桶。
普氏能源资讯(Platts)周二晚间评估,迪拜11月现金期货溢价为2.85美元/桶,为6年高点。普氏数据显示,2013年9月19日,这一价差曾一度升至2.87美元/桶。
王佳晶 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下:
Dubai futures: Sour crude still pricing in Middle East risk despite reassurances
Spreads for benchmark Dubai crude futures were mixed in mid-morning trading hours on Wednesday, as market participants continue to price in risk premia for the Middle East following an overnight press conference by the country's new energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.
The Dubai October/November intermonth futures spread was unchanged between 4:30 pm in Singapore (0830 GMT) Tuesday evening and 11 am (0300 GMT) Wednesday morning, at $1.59/b, despite flat price on crude futures seeing a $3-$5/b correction after the Saudi prince's comments.
Saudi Arabia has already restored more than half of the oil production capacity damaged in Saturday's attacks, and expects to restore its production capacity to 11 million b/d by the end of September and recover its full capacity of 12 million b/d two months later, Abdulaziz said in his press briefing.
The Saudi energy minister's remarks reversed prices for crude futures in overnight trading, with NYMEX front-month crude settling $3.56/b lower at $59.34/b, while ICE front-month Brent settled $4.47/b lower at $64.55/b.
But crude traders in Asia told S&P Global Platts the market for light crude could remain tight in the coming weeks.
Dubai's discount to ICE Brent futures narrowed Wednesday morning, implying that whilst the global knee-jerk reaction in oil prices was allayed after Saudi Arabia's comments, traders East of Suez are still pricing in risk for physical flows from the Middle East to Asia as reflected in Dubai crude prices.
"There is a lot of volatility and it's difficult to trade in times like these," one trader said of the situation in Asia.
"These kind of events have happened maybe only 4-5 times before and are very unusual," the trader added.
The November Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps spread narrowed to $3.90/b at 11 am in Singapore on Wednesday, after it had been assessed at $4.16/b Tuesday evening at 4:30 pm.
Meanwhile, tightness reflected in the sour crude market for the months ahead eased considerably, with the November/December Dubai futures spread falling to $1.13/b Wednesday morning, from $1.54/b Tuesday evening.
Platts assessed November cash Dubai's premium to futures at $2.85/b Tuesday evening, a six-year high. The spread was previously higher at $2.87/b on September 19, 2013, Platts records showed.