据7月12日Gulf Times报道，国际能源署（IEA）表示，欧佩克最近决定延长减产时间，但这不会从根本上改变供过于求的石油市场前景。虽然欧佩克+部长们普遍预期的将产量协议延长至2020年3月的决定提供了市场导向，但这并没有改变供过于求市场的基本前景。

两周前，在维也纳举行的一次会议上，欧佩克国家和俄罗斯等其他产油国同意将每日减产时间延长9个月，以支撑油价并消化过剩的石油供应。而总部位于巴黎，为石油消费国提供咨询的机构表示，目前石油供应远远超过需求。

国际能源署表示:“这份报告的主要信息是，2019年上半年，石油供应每天超过需求量达90万桶。”根据该机构的最新数据，与此前预期的大约50万桶的赤字相比，第二季度全球石油盈余为每天50万桶。

这一盈余增加是2018年下半年石油产量激增、需求增长开始放缓时出现的大量库存。显然，目前市场吃紧暂时不是一个问题，重新平衡似乎要等到未来才能实现。IEA表示，假设欧佩克目前的日产量保持在3000万桶左右，到2020年第一季度末，石油库存可能净增加1.36亿桶。与此同时，2020年初，对欧佩克原油的需求可能降至每日2800万桶。

国际能源署表示，形势将随着2019年的发展而变化，但在短期内，主要关注领域仍是需求增长。目前仍坚持当前的经济增长预测，但有迹象表明，贸易和制造业正在恶化。任何行业全球增长的放缓都会抑制对石油的需求。

国际能源署表示，近期数据显示，2019年第二季度全球制造业产出自2012年末以来首次下降，新订单下降速度很快。从积极的方面看，国际贸易紧张的形势似乎有所改善，解决悬而未决的问题将极大地提振经济信心。

洪伟立 摘译自 Gulf times

原文如下：

IEA: Opec deal won’t alter fundamental outlook for oil market

The recent decision by oil producing countries to prolong cuts in output will not fundamentally change the outlook for a market that is heavily oversupplied, the IEA said yesterday.

“The widely-anticipated decision by Opec+ ministers to extend their output agreement to March 2020 provides guidance but it does not change the fundamental outlook of an oversupplied market,” the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report.

At a meeting two weeks ago in Vienna, Opec countries and other oil producers such as Russia agreed to prolong by nine months daily output cuts aimed at supporting prices and soaking up excess supplies.

“The main message of this report is that in the first half of 2019, oil supply has exceeded demand by 0.9mn barrels per day,” the IEA said.

According to the agency’s latest data, there was a global surplus in the second quarter of 0.5mn barrels per day, compared to previous expectations of a deficit of about the same amount.

“This surplus adds to the huge stock builds seen in the second half of 2018 when oil production surged just as demand growth started to falter.

Clearly, market tightness is not an issue for the time being and any re-balancing seems to have moved further into the future,” the IEA said.

Assuming constant Opec output at the current level of around 30mn barrels per day, “by the end of the first quarter of 2020, stocks could increase by a net 136mn barrels,” the IEA said.

At the same time, the demand on Opec crude in early 2020 could fall to only 28mn barrels per day.

“Clearly, this presents a major challenge to those who have taken on the task of market management,” the report said.

“The picture will evolve as 2019 progresses, but in the near term the main area of focus remains demand growth.” The IEA said that it was sticking for the time being to its current forecasts for economic growth, but “there are indications of deteriorating trade and manufacturing activity.”

Any slowdown in global economic growth will put the brakes on demand for oil.

Recent data showed that global manufacturing output in the second quarter of 2019 fell for the first time since late 2012 and new orders have declined at a fast pace, the IEA said.

“On the positive side, the mood surrounding the US/China trade dispute appears to have improved and the resolution of outstanding issues would be a massive boost to economic confidence,” the report said.

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