据普氏能源资讯7月14日报道，随着亚洲的新增产能上线，美国库存水平依然强劲， 2019年下半年，全球丙烯市场将继续保持良好的供应。

随着供应改善，加上衍生品需求放缓，今年全球丙烯现货价格从2018年的多年高点下跌，美国市场下跌幅度最大。

随着丙烷脱氢装置产量的提高，美国丙烯供应在2019年上半年已经恢复。根据美国能源情报署（US Energy Information Administration）的数据显示，这与今年上半年的预期一致，最终导致3月库存水平达到创纪录的645.9万桶。

贸易参与者表示，他们预计今年剩余时间将继续这样做。

自今年3月份以来，库存水平逐渐下降，但仍远高于一年前的库存水平。6月底，美国库存为496万桶，而2018年6月底为232.4万桶。市场参与者表示，在一些重挫股出现年中回暖之后，股市应该会再次上涨。但消息人士补充道，预计在2019年10月至2020年2月期间，所有三个美国PDH装置仍将出现转变类型。

库存的总体增长给美国丙烯现货价格带来了压力，使其远低于2018年的水平。聚合物级丙烯现货价格在2月下旬触及32美分/磅(705美元/公吨)的低位，随后反弹，然后在6月中旬再次回落至每磅32美分。

郝芬 译自 Platts

原文如下：

H2 Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories

Global propylene markets will continue to see healthy supply availability in the second half of 2019 as fresh capacity comes online in Asia and US inventory levels remain strong.

As supply improved, alongside a slowdown in derivatives demand, global propylene spot prices fell this year from the multi-year highs seen in 2018, and the US market has taken the steepest dive.

US propylene supply has recovered in the first half of 2019, as production from propane dehydrogenation units has improved. This was in line with expectations for the front half of the year, and eventually led to record high inventory levels of 6.459 million barrels in March, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Trade participants have said this is something they expect to continue for the remainder of the year.

Inventory levels have gradually come down since March, but are still well above inventory levels a year ago. At the end of June, US inventories stood at 4.960 million barrels, compared with 2.324 million barrels at the end of June 2018. Market participants have said stocks should build again following mid-year turnarounds at some heavy cracker units. But sources added that all three US PDH units are still expected to have see type of turnaround between October and February 2020.

The overall increase in inventories has pressured US propylene spot prices, leaving them well below 2018 levels. Polymer-grade propylene spot prices hit a low of 32 cents/lb ($705/mt) FD USG in late February before rebounding and then receding again to 32 cents/lb FD USG in mid-June.