据今日油价网站3月18日消息 路透社周一对20家炼油厂进行的一项调查显示，中国炼油厂预计将在今年第三季度每天加工1300多万桶原油，该加工数量将打破新的记录。

预计中国炼油厂加工量的上升还将导致国内精炼油产品供过于求，一些炼油厂可能会选择降低运行率或专注于化学品，以避免运输燃料的直接竞争，这将进一步降低中国和该地区的精炼利润。

根据中国海关的数据，2019年前两个月，中国炼油厂加工原油10249万吨（1268万桶/日），创历史新高，比去年同期增长6.1%。

大部分加工原油来自原油进口，与2018年同期相比，今年原油进口继续增长。今年2月，中国进口原油3922万吨（1023万桶/日），同比增长21.6%。1月份，进口量为4260万吨（1003万桶/天），同比增长4.8%。

根据路透社的调查和计算，中国至少有8家炼油厂将在第二季度进行维护或大修，这将导致4-6月加工量有所下降。

但到了第三季度，预计两家大型炼油厂的新炼油能力将达到80万桶/日，这可能会将中国炼油厂的加工量提高到1300万桶/日以上的新纪录，但由于这将加剧目前已经很大的运输燃料供应过剩，利润率将下降。

据路透社调查，今年第三季度末，浙江石化和恒力石化各有40万桶/日的炼油厂将全面投产。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Chinese Refiners Set To Boost Crude Oil Use To New Record In Q3

Chinese refiners are expected to process more than 13 million barrels of crude oil per day for the first time ever in the third quarter this year, a Reuters survey of 20 refiners showed on Monday.

The rise in processing rates at China’s refineries is also expected to result in a worsening glut of refined oil products on the domestic market, and some refiners may opt to reduce run rates or focus on chemicals in order to avoid direct competition in transportation fuels, which will further dampen refining margins in China and the region.

In the first two months of 2019, Chinese refineries processed 102.49 million tons of crude oil, or 12.68 million bpd—the highest on record and a 6.1-percent increase compared to the same period last year, according to China’s customs data.

Most of the processed crude came from imports of crude oil, which continued to increase this year compared to the same months of 2018. In February, China imported 39.22 million tons of crude, or 10.23 million bpd, up 21.6 percent on the year. In January, imports stood at 42.6 million tons or 10.03 million bpd, up 4.8 percent on the year.

Going forward, at least eight refineries in China will enter maintenance or overhauls in the second quarter, which will result in lower processing rates in April-June, according to the Reuters survey and calculations.

But then in Q3, a total of 800,000 bpd in new refining capacity from two large refineries is expected to come online, likely boosting the collective Chinese refineries’ processing rate to a new record of more than 13 million bpd, but dragging down margins as it would exacerbate an already large transportation fuel oversupply.

Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemicals are each expected to have their respective 400,000-bpd refineries up and running at full capacity by the end of the third quarter this year, according to the Reuters survey.