据彭博社11月12日报道，在举行下一次会议之前，欧佩克及其合作伙伴没有表现出奖采取更有力行动支持油价的举动。但一些有影响力的预测人士表示，如果不进行进一步的干预，新的供应过剩可能会导致明年年初市场的崩盘。

国际性金融服务公司摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）表示，如果欧佩克及其盟国不宣布进一步减产，伦敦原油价格可能从62美元/桶下跌近30%，至每桶45美元。花旗集团（Citigroup Inc.）和法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas SA）预计，油价将跌至50美元/桶的低点。

摩根士丹利全球石油策略师马蒂金?拉茨（Martijn Rats）表示：“2020年，石油供应过剩的危机笼罩着市场。要么欧佩克加大减产力度，要么油价将跌至每桶45美元左右，这迫使美国页岩油气市场放缓，从而平衡国际市场。”

该组织的数据显示，随着脆弱的经济抑制了消费，加上来自美国、挪威和巴西的新石油供应大量涌入，明年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应将以全球需求的两倍速度增长。如果沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和其他今年控制产量的国家在12月5日至6日在维也纳开会时不进一步削减产量，几乎可以肯定，油价会走软。

尽管欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德巴尔金多（Mohammad Barkindo）表示，欧佩克及其合作伙伴准备“不惜一切代价”防止油价再次暴跌，但代表们表示，欧佩克成员中最大的产油国并没有打算进一步减产。阿曼石油部长周二表示，欧佩克可能会维持目前的产量水平。

沙特似乎对进一步的减产并没有什么兴趣，据彭博社收集的数据显示，沙特已经削减了两倍多的产量，而欧佩克中的其他成员国，特别是伊拉克和尼日利亚，还没有兑现减产承诺。与欧佩克成员国相比，俄罗斯面临的预算压力较小，因此采取行动的紧迫性也较小。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

OPEC+ Risks Oil Slump Below $50 Without Deeper Supply Curbs

With their next meeting just weeks away, OPEC and its partners are showing no impetus for stronger action to support oil prices. But without intervention, some influential forecasters say a new supply glut could send the market crashing early next year.

Crude prices, trading at about $62 a barrel in London, may tumble almost 30% to $45 a barrel if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies don’t announce deeper production cutbacks, according to Morgan Stanley. Citigroup Inc. and BNP Paribas SA predict a slide to the low $50s.

“The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”

Oil supplies from outside OPEC are set to expand twice as fast as global demand next year, as a fragile economy crimps consumption while new supplies flood in from the U.S., Norway and Brazil, the group’s data show. If Saudi Arabia, Russia and others who reined in production this year don’t deepen the cutbacks when they meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 to 6, prices will almost certainly weaken, the banks say.

While OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said the group and its partners are prepared to do “whatever it takes” to prevent another rout, delegates say that the biggest producers in the coalition aren’t pushing for further reductions. Oman’s Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhy said on Tuesday the group will likely stick with current output levels.

The Saudis appear to have little appetite for further sacrifices. The kingdom had already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others in the alliance -- particularly Iraq and Nigeria -- haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russia faces less budgetary pressure than its OPEC counterparts and thus less urgency to act.