据11月12日hydrocarbonprocessing报道，巴西准备在不到一年的时间里，第二次提高柴油中所含生物柴油的最低含量，并在2023年之前，每年提高1个百分点，这将反过来提振大豆需求。

分析师、生产商和政府官员预计，明年3月，巴西将把生物柴油的最低混合比例从去年9月的10%提高到12%。他们预计，到2023年巴西的混合比例将达到15%，并就之后可能的更高混合比例展开讨论。

提高生物柴油的混合比例将减少以石油为基础的柴油燃料的进口。这也将促进当地对大豆的需求，因为巴西80%的生物柴油都是由大豆油制成的。

巴西石油和燃料监管机构ANP实验室负责人Fabio Vinhado表示:“我们认为15%的混合比例是肯定的，我们正在测试更高的混合比例可能。目前正在对柴油中含有20%至30%生物柴油的混合物进行测试。”

生物柴油咨询公司BiodieselBR预计，巴西生物柴油供应从2016年的46.2亿升增至今年的66.9亿升。该公司估计，2023年巴西生物柴油需求约为97亿升。

BiodieselBR首席分析师米格尔?安吉洛?维达纳(Miguel Angelo Vedana)表示:“生物柴油需求将出现强劲增长，并将通过扩大生产来满足。”

生物柴油生产商协会Ubrabio表示，目前有11家工厂正在扩建，10家新工厂正在建设中。该公司预计，一旦这些项目投产，产能将增至126亿升。

大豆产业集团Abiove主管Andre Nassar称："当我们达到15%的混合比例时，当地大豆产业将不得不再加工800万吨大豆，从目前的每年4,400万吨增至约5,400万吨"

巴西生物柴油政策的一个特点是，它确定了最低混合比例，但允许燃料经销商销售最高可达15%的混合比例柴油。

Vedana表示：“一些经销商已经在销售更高比例的混合燃料，特别是在生物柴油比柴油更便宜的地去，比如马托格罗索州。”而另一个促使燃料经销商这么做的原因是联邦政府推出了一项名为RenovaBio的新政策，旨在促进生物燃料的发展。该政策将于2020年开始实施。

王佳晶 摘译自 hydrocarbonprocessing

原文如下：

Brazil to boost biodiesel blend to 15% by 2023, helping soy demand

Brazil is poised to increase for the second time in less than a year the minimum amount of biodiesel to be blended into diesel fuel and to follow up with increases of 1 percentage point a year up to 2023, which in turn should boost demand for soybeans.

Analysts, producers and government officials see the country pushing the minimum biodiesel blend to 12% of diesel composition next March after an increase from 10% to 11% last September. They see Brazil reaching a 15% blend by 2023 and are discussing the path to higher blends after that.

Higher biodiesel blending will reduce imports of oil-based diesel fuel. It would also boost local demand for soybeans, since 80 percent of Brazil’s biodiesel is made from soybean oil.

“B15 is something that we see as certain, we are testing higher blends now,” said Fabio Vinhado, who leads the laboratory of Brazil’s oil and fuels regulator ANP. Tests are being done with blends of 20% and 30% of biodiesel in diesel fuel, he said.

Biodiesel offer in Brazil increased from 4.62 billion liters in 2016 to projected 6.69 billion liters this year, according to consultancy BiodieselBR, who estimates a demand of around 9.7 billion liters in 2023.

“There is a strong demand increase coming, and that will be met with production expansion,” said Miguel Angelo Vedana, BiodieselBR’s chief analyst.

Biodiesel producers association Ubrabio said there are 11 plants currently working on expansions and 10 new plants under construction. It expects production capacity to grow to 12.6 billion liters once those projects are operational.

“When we reach B15, the local soy industry will have to process 8 million tonnes more of soybeans, going from 44 million tonnes per year currently to around 54 million tonnes,” said Andre Nassar, head of soy industry group Abiove.

A peculiarity of Brazil’s biodiesel policy is that it determines the minimum blend, but allows fuel distributors to sell higher blends up to B15 if they want to.

“Some distributors are already selling higher blends, particularly in places where biodiesel is cheaper than diesel, such as in Mato Grosso,” said Vedana.

Another incentive for fuel distributors to do that is the new federal policy to boost biofuels, called RenovaBio, which starts in 2020.